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A non-existent Y2K computer bug and WMD in Iraq are recent examples of where the politics and scientific advice together have got it wildly wrong.

But we cannot get into a mess by taking action to 鈥渟ave the planet鈥�, and there are other benefits 鈥� to avoid energy shortages; prevent reliance on Russia and failed states for energy; guard against nuclear nightmares; and root out 鈥渨hite elephant鈥� carbon reduction/energy-saving schemes with unproven technology. All resources have a limit, even zero carbon ones, and we should be careful how we use them.

There is no doubt the UK climate is changing. Temperature and sunshine levels are unprecedented. Climate trends are shown in a clear, understandable format, region by region, in Climate Memorandum No 21 from the National Climate Information Centre at the Met Office (Spatial analysis of trends since 1914 using gridded data sets, version 1.1, June 2006). The data and statistical analysis is of the highest quality. It is not theory; it is observed trends. It is freely available on the Met Office website.

In this document the 鈥渉eating degree day鈥� reducing trend is notable; as is the increasing trend in amounts of sunshine, and increasing trend in temperatures. Both sunshine and temperature are at record levels and still going up sharply. July 06 was the warmest, and the sunniest, month on record; April 07 was the warmest, and sunniest, April on record.

What does this mean for building design? We could just follow 鈥渓ow carbon鈥� fashion, or we could design for the actual climate trends. We need to take note of the following:

n每Anything done to improve heating performance will have a marked diminishing return as the years go by. Where does that leave CHP?

With all the extra sunshine around and continuing sharp upward trend, building anything of glass is folly. Aspect and shading will become even more important.

n每There are marked regional differences, which the building regs or design guides do not seem to take account of. We should be cleverer with this! We have the facts so could use them.

Climate scientists say there is a strong causation relationship between sunshine amounts (clear skies; reducing amount of clouds) and measured surface and sea temperatures. This simple relationship is not well understood, and they cannot give any relationship figures. But you don't need to be a theoretical physicist to understand it; it鈥檚 almost common sense.

I do not encourage anyone to take one side or another in this debate. Just keep an open mind, as all climate scientists do!

John Cooknell